Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6b75a3492cda9b79169b512e0dd13001888b6eaad7715783b83fbbe218bf6c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d1…9762backed Yes | 0c | 20,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 0c | 6,074$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed Yes | 1c | 5,358$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 5c | 800.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…3881backed Yes | 8c | 731.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 11c | 663.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 66c | 404.84$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 384.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…967abacked Yes | 8c | 298.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 298.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 16c | 267.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 201.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 10c | 185.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 35c | 179.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 139.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…37b4backed Yes | 14c | 100.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 93.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 29c | 84.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 41c | 49.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…4d6cbacked Yes | 25c | 47.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…9baebacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 59c | 21.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 51°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.