Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee107c89d3b6b40cb46d4fd3dfed2696ec8474e1f705f51f4668558be6ff607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,707$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,548.34 | 74 | 1.4%1 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 890.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.4 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…f325backed Yes | 15c | 303.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 44c | 293.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 223.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 207.37$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 199.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 192.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.48 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 37c | 188$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 44c | 159.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 149.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 145.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 142.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 130.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 118.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 114.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 114.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 38c | 111.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…a87abacked Yes | 14c | 103.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 60c | 81.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 32c | 66.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 44c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 68c | 48.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 60c | 46.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 31c | 45.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 70c | 45.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 62c | 43.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed No | 62c | 41.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 40c | 40.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 39.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 29c | 39.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 70c | 35.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 49c | 33.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0d…e79cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 31.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 29.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 36c | 28.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…5936backed No | 41c | 26.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 57c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…a0b0backed No | 71c | 22.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 74c | 19.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 64c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 51°F or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.