Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6be55021c34092e718c468ab2dc00327c710271dd5e8693919e6a2215f629b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbilt Commodoresof Vanderbilt Commodores, Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 3,011$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.58 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 51c | 1,970$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.28 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 49c | 1,210$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.9 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 49c | 1,014$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 51c | 1,007$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.57 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 50c | 400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 48c | 269.23$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 50c | 118.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 23.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-7.5)this page
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State BulldogsVanderbilt Commodores won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: O/U 159.5Under won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: O/U 160.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.