Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6c30b5e866e04a725654f9560ef0f084f979120160b45678d07a4fb87aecb1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed RE.Arise | 58c | 5,763$3,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.08 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 3,847$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.49 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed RE.Arise | 59c | 1,998$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.18 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 1,911$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.8 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 59c | 1,749$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.62 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 500$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Spirit Academy | 41c | 470$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 355$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Spirit Academy | 7c | 285.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 271$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 238.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 41c | 158.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 150.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed RE.Arise | 77c | 141.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 125.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…b8c7backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 83.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 81.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 18c | 70.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed RE.Arise | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 61c | 65.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed RE.Arise | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked RE.Arise | 57c | 49.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 42.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 41.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed RE.Arise | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…7841backed Spirit Academy | 41c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Spirit Academy | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked Spirit Academy | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.