Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef37f7cd20a6b710ea445614d3af14384c428a43f83780cbb8f7115194acfeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof RE.Arise, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 4,066$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.63 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed RE.Arise | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +19.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 981.88$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.61 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 894$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.7 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed RE.Arise | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed RE.Arise | 48c | 620.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked RE.Arise | 47c | 378.04$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.7 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed RE.Arise | 60c | 377.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed RE.Arise | 64c | 349.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed RE.Arise | 33c | 345.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed RE.Arise | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed RE.Arise | 44c | 244.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 192.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 263 | 51%134 W · 129 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 163.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 47c | 156.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 156.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 581 | 56.6%329 W · 252 L | +27.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…03a6backed RE.Arise | 49c | 147.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Spirit Academy | 63c | 94.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 889 | 38%338 W · 551 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…617bbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 83.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 83.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed RE.Arise | 55c | 79.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 79.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 381 | 59.1%225 W · 156 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…a408backed RE.Arise | 67c | 76.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 22c | 71.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 66.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 239 | 38.5%92 W · 147 L | -18.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked RE.Arise | 45c | 60.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 944 | 42.3%399 W · 545 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Spirit Academy | 34c | 53.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 51.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,113 | 36.2%403 W · 710 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed RE.Arise | 49c | 49.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 48.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked RE.Arise | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked RE.Arise | 67c | 46.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 38c | 44.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 417 | 39.6%165 W · 252 L | -38.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 44.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 61c | 41.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed RE.Arise | 56c | 40.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Spirit Academy | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed RE.Arise | 68c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked RE.Arise | 67c | 35.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Spirit Academy | 51c | 35.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | +24.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked RE.Arise | 32c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 326 | 6.4%21 W · 305 L | -101.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked RE.Arise | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed RE.Arise | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Spirit Academy | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 675 | 46.1%311 W · 364 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db0…2fedbacked Spirit Academy | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed RE.Arise | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 583 | 46.3%270 W · 313 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed RE.Arise | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 436 | 49.1%214 W · 222 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RE.Arise | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.