Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e51755da060117a0725d64546e07e9a83de99bb9954dd3d6e7b986b8e76f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 59c | 1,708$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.78 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 34c | 991.32$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.96 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 14c | 749.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 34c | 411.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 352$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 46c | 295.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 52c | 209.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 66c | 172$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 17c | 143.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 36c | 96.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 58c | 94.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe0…e3e0backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 23c | 69.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…3296backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Yes | 24c | 46.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Yes | 40c | 45.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…1898backed No | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Yes | 39c | 42.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…50f6backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 52c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 50c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.