Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb8f20c3a6928415dbe368436ac8ea9bcd22c0aef52a1a6d0090099a4813ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 30,253$9,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,581.43 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 41c | 20,000$8,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,800 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 59c | 13,856$8,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,175.04 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 13,117$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.89 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 58c | 9,173$5,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,320.13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 42c | 5,115$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.49 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Yes | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.95 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 1,362$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.38 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 23c | 1,278$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.32 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 933.6$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.93 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 59c | 876.6$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.6 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 39c | 800.79$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.23 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 59c | 800$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.67 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 18c | 610.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 68c | 508$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.44 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 19c | 468.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 17c | 441.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 18c | 388.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 18c | 363.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 32c | 350$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed No | 19c | 319$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 33c | 252.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 42c | 250.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 63c | 215.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 13c | 210$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Yes | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 65c | 176.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed No | 60c | 162$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 44c | 144$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 80c | 130.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed No | 19c | 127.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 60c | 97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 25c | 91.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 77c | 89.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 61c | 84.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 37c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 72.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed No | 58c | 67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…94cabacked No | 25c | 51.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 216 | 44.4%96 W · 120 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 77c | 47.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 61c | 45.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 38c | 45.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 68c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will FC Alverca vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.