Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284b86f77c17909b282631531e39f61c5b0a8084aada1e0d23ba95ba42396e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 73c | 4,312$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.31 | 671 | 47.8%321 W · 350 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 20c | 1,595$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 27c | 779.88$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…3296backed Yes | 2c | 649.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 66c | 635.75$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 21c | 469.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 27c | 460.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 408$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…53dfbacked Yes | 28c | 357.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 351.52$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 28c | 207$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 189.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Yes | 26c | 142.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 78c | 139.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 34c | 123.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -15.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…c3a6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 27c | 93.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 27c | 88.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 27c | 74.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 19c | 69.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes | 28c | 43.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 71c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will FC Alverca vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.