MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6f67070f023147e6865d762f0ef551b5b54c06287234495634bc6a66f01e744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 57c | 2,367$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.27 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 2,227$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 54c | 1,664$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.33 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 1,631$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.48 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 46c | 1,556$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.54 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,073$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.38 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Under | 56c | 1,046$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 863.01$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.35 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 790.75$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 667.24$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.93 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 48c | 503.78$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 54c | 450.18$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 412.45$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.85 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 53c | 306.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.58 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 45c | 303.03$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 281.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 56c | 262.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 73.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 55c | 63.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 62c | 59.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 44c | 55.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 46c | 46.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Over | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 37.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 44c | 26.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 54c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.