Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe729caa20cd047c470012b50e74ce312195bd966efaa005e2e90547da1bbb70d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 23c | 510.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 214.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed No | 76c | 199.97$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 177.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 156.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 76c | 152.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 147.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 129.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 115.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 109.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 92.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 23c | 68.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 20c | 65.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 17c | 63.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 25c | 51.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 78c | 49.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 30.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 75c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 76c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.