CS2 · resolved market
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Natus Vincere vs. Nemiga
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe775b519806e780b679e604ca433c96c36f4444c748621ad14580c0c749ec4a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Nemiga
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Nemiga | 0c | 33,528$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked Nemiga | 28c | 6,657$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.36 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Nemiga | 8c | 6,254$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Nemiga | 29c | 3,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.99 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 2,708$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.94 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…8474backed Nemiga | 6c | 2,388$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nemiga | 18c | 2,055$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.11 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 2,000$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 1,673$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.38 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Nemiga | 29c | 1,500$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Nemiga | 15c | 1,388$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 1,000$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 905$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 810.42$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 540$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nemiga | 5c | 539$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 345.07$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Nemiga | 22c | 340.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Nemiga | 25c | 333$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 295.5$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Nemiga | 28c | 208.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Nemiga | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Nemiga | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nemiga | 29c | 171.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Nemiga | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Nemiga | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…eb3bbacked Nemiga | 30c | 106.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Nemiga | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 252 | 43.3%109 W · 143 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Nemiga | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nemiga | 30c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Nemiga | 30c | 84.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nemiga | 22c | 80.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d19…198fbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 69.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf7…de52backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 67.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0268…ab71backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Nemiga | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f58…254cbacked Nemiga | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…c49cbacked Nemiga | 31c | 36.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7208backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…e7c2backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa8…38b1backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.