South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe78866425a8fcadf4bd7263f92f8b60248b83a9a34790c6ad5c5ffffb20a1b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 38c | 30,000$11,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,400 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 50c | 13,563$6,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,781.64 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 72c | 10,418$7,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,941.49 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 46c | 7,145$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.53 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Yes | 55c | 6,400$3,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,896 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 5,327$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.96 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9f…9648backed Yes | 51c | 3,932$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 56c | 3,239$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.05 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 49c | 2,613$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.3 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,108$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…bdf1backed Yes | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 44c | 803.68$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 34c | 592.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952f…182bbacked Yes | 76c | 547.47$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 55c | 503.64$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 24c | 459.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 50c | 453.12$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.56 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Yes | 53c | 447.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 41c | 348.24$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Yes | 74c | 315.35$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 47c | 268.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 48c | 248.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 51c | 194.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a85…7428backed No | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ceb…ddcebacked No | 50c | 189$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…c757backed Yes | 51c | 189$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…e465backed No | 50c | 189$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…7063backed Yes | 51c | 189$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…c645backed Yes | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…a3ffbacked Yes | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…b51dbacked Yes | 51c | 188$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…de0abacked Yes | 50c | 187$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…3be7backed Yes | 50c | 187$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa4…76b3backed Yes | 51c | 187$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a5…d685backed No | 49c | 187$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…bc6bbacked No | 50c | 186$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…f2b2backed No | 49c | 185$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 53c | 182.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…d539backed No | 50c | 182$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…bac8backed Yes | 59c | 181.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…0300backed No | 49c | 181$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…b2a1backed No | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…ce90backed Yes | 50c | 178$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff2…4b93backed No | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…64cdbacked Yes | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…bc8abacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 51c | 71.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…c3acbacked Yes | 76c | 64.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 49c | 58.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…732cbacked Yes | 51c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500d…7f34backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…9450backed Yes | 76c | 27.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…970ebacked No | 51c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yes | 55c | 24.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 56c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 47c | 22.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…6df4backed Yes | 54c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…c580backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…d7a9backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will Fluminense FC vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.