South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe78ed7de253fc04d22e4e763d58f11e13eeda2ae90a270ed9d2bd93f45b6e659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 23c | 11,804$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.78 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 78c | 5,550$4,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.94 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 77c | 4,094$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.51 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 70cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3987backed No | 77c | 1,370$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.1 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,048$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…239bbacked Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…1c3fbacked No | 78c | 582.78$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 521.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 78c | 507.42$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 378$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…19f9backed Yes | 29c | 345.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 16c | 259.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 77c | 251.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 239.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…46d2backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…a06abacked Yes | 26c | 199.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 25c | 157.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 22c | 142.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 135.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 132.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 76c | 82.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…9430backed No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 25c | 56.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 50.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 47.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 47.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked No | 79c | 28.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked No | 77c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-05?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.