Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a0524392eb1d504a2f109ac6f04d5eaaf56382c9b01c7fe94fba51716410c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 67c | 489.71$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.62 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 55c | 222.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 144.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 67c | 131.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 45c | 107.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 60c | 100.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 70c | 98.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 97.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 85.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 62c | 64.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 65c | 60.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 51c | 58.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 51.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 65c | 45.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 28c | 45.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 37c | 45.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 40.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 36c | 38.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 37.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 49c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 54c | 35.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 40c | 33.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 31.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 52c | 31.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 44c | 31.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 44c | 31.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 33c | 30.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 69c | 30.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 53c | 27.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 56c | 25.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ae…13f4backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…e355backed Yes | 58c | 25.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…8834backed Yes | 75c | 20.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…ab05backed Yes | 73c | 20.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 58c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 19.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9e…6d4fbacked No | 59c | 18.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…3c2bbacked Yes | 62c | 18.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 66c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.