NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80b327737217cd606dffd155a38388958ad32774a94f64e9cd37f936d11689d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…e4f5backed Over | 46c | 6,412$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 6,354$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.23 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0e57backed Under | 54c | 3,536$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a9…197bbacked Over | 46c | 2,918$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…f8fabacked Under | 54c | 2,876$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…f683backed Under | 54c | 2,239$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 45c | 1,963$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.37 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 1,808$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.83 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 55c | 1,291$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.95 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 1,265$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.67 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,233$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.16 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…e782backed Under | 54c | 679$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 55c | 156.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…8447backed Under | 55c | 38.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 21.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Lightning vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.