TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Avalanche

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Avalancheof Lightning, Avalanche
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$332,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Avalanche58c109,895$64,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,877.3715953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning42c71,933$30,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,199.6641246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning42c52,013$21,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,7841,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Lightning43c44,455$19,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,051.79340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Avalanche58c38,409$22,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,981.852657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Avalanche57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45010356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche57c13,888$7,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,971.791,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Lightning41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Avalanche57c8,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,41089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Lightning41c7,167$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.525453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning41c7,057$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,893.211,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Lightning44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lightning24c5,699$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.8327143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning16c5,020$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.751,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Avalanche59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05013946.8%65 W · 74 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Avalanche59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Avalanche63c4,839$3,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Avalanche58c4,830$2,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.632251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Avalanche58c4,551$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.3812445.2%56 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lightning42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9913333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning42c3,860$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.21,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Lightning42c3,500$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9930447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Lightning43c3,405$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.6230848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa096…aa97backed Avalanche58c3,207$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Lightning34c3,196$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.9833848.8%165 W · 173 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Lightning42c2,660$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.1495049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Avalanche56c2,328$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.3214538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Avalanche57c2,322$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.4633151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Avalanche57c2,281$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.724749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning42c2,250$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Lightning42c2,154$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.2662249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Lightning45c2,000$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.0311946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…2c46backed Avalanche58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa365…ee73backed Avalanche58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8402240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked Lightning41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8202962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Avalanche57c1,770$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.157453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Avalanche55c1,603$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.3552050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Lightning25c1,557$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5342847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Lightning12c1,517$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.19949.5%49 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Lightning17c1,394$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3433837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x197b…818ebacked Avalanche58c1,347$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.745350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche56c1,283$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.472,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning9c1,263$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Lightning43c1,250$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.522852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Lightning1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c2…26aabacked Avalanche58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Avalanche58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…08d7backed Lightning41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101850%9 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ea…be40backed Avalanche58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lightning36c914$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6458841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b8…6631backed Lightning41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2d4…8713backed Avalanche58c850.53$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.222138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbd2…19ffbacked Lightning43c850.53$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.732548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e9…5e83backed Avalanche59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.463748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e48…c23bbacked Lightning10c806.64$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.355420.4%11 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Lightning14c803$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4229412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning41c797.32$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.2891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Lightning41c775$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.757152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Avalanche57c750$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.51,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa13e…7448backed Avalanche58c698$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.161464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c59…7e7fbacked Lightning43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Avalanche58c696.34$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Avalanche58c603.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4523047.4%109 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Avalanche58c600$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25419548.2%94 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked Lightning41c572$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.524949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Avalanche64c571.97$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.881,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Lightning41c570.69$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9819942.7%85 W · 114 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc923…e0d5backed Lightning43c543.3$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.621435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37d5…9417backed Avalanche58c543.3$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.191838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Avalanche58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2445447.8%217 W · 237 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb5…24d2backed Avalanche59c510.17$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd65f…2c7cbacked Avalanche59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2051030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Lightning42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21038046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Lightning41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed3…bffcbacked Lightning42c426.19$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1791553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9149…6661backed Avalanche59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-71.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3cb4backed Avalanche58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Lightning42c400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16836652.7%193 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning42c385$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.71,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Lightning43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Avalanche57c348.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.715947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Avalanche58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.833275%24 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Avalanche77c307.01$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4112070.8%85 W · 35 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Avalanche57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12966951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Lightning44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13223741.4%98 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Avalanche57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12918750.3%94 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Avalanche57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12938857.2%222 W · 166 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning30c282.23$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.812,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x966d…eaa5backed Lightning43c277.37$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1812254.1%66 W · 56 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Avalanche57c266.84$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2487447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f24…59e7backed Avalanche58c255.17$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.171145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Lightning43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Avalanche57c249.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.574951.8%388 W · 361 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning43c246.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.13,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf84…a7b5backed Avalanche57c243.86$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.864928.6%14 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-49.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Lightning42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b8…aec0backed Avalanche59c237.29$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.293650%18 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Lightning43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049746.5%231 W · 266 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Avalanche44c229.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.814654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae58…3f01backed Lightning41c228.85$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.932955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.