TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa13e…7448

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT1770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.97
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$75
Heat vs. Pelicansbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+85.2%+$27.91
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+78.6%+$28.35
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+78.6%+$293.48
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+69.5%+$390.32
Pelicans vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+56.3%+$291.96
Jazz vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+25%+$12.5
76ers vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,442Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+33.3%+$480.75
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+37%+$16.2
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+25%+$12.5
Hornets vs. Pelicansbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$261.32
Bucks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+63.9%+$292.5
Heat vs. Clippersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+284.6%+$493.58
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$674.54
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
All 17 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Rangersbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$29.37
Sharks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Utah vs. Maple Leafsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Jets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$293.75
Panthers vs. Ducksbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$388.74
Lightning vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+72.4%+$293.16
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+85.2%+$97.98
Flyers vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$249
Hurricanes vs. Rangersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+85.2%+$293.48
Oilers vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+127.3%+$430.18
Penguins vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$763Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+63.9%+$487.5
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Lightning vs. Islandersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$7.35
Flames vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+284.6%+$42.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+41%+$50.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.