TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,194,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,275,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,194,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 861 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8764…604abacked Pelicans53c258,388$136,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136,945.527266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat47c65,360$30,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,640.782,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Heat47c60,000$28,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,80040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Heat48c56,413$27,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,334.7116752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Pelicans52c41,800$21,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,73659347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pelicans52c38,241$19,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,829.521,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Pelicans52c30,500$15,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,964.9839349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pelicans4c26,275$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.6659646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Pelicans53c25,000$13,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,25019653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Pelicans0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat47c24,964$11,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,249.271,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b1…c7e3backed Pelicans3c24,554$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat47c22,726$10,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,983.654,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Heat47c20,561$9,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,897.3217249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans52c15,460$7,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,978.194,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat47c15,280$7,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,085.862,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d99…5591backed Pelicans52c14,854$7,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,672.771070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat47c14,635$6,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,756.551,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Pelicans0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat47c10,934$5,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,783.143,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans21c10,262$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.031,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x306c…51f2backed Pelicans0c10,025$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Heat47c10,001$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,300.534235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Pelicans52c10,001$5,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,242.6620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Heat48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Heat48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7f…9550backed Pelicans48c8,692$4,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,184.071850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…9e1cbacked Pelicans4c8,650$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Pelicans47c8,302$3,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,903.4828742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Heat48c8,287$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,317.8319136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat65c8,037$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Heat47c7,896$3,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,184.7420849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Pelicans53c6,499$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.7324252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Heat47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.9816640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Pelicans50c6,060$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,03040350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Pelicans12c5,151$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.1283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Heat47c5,106$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.3872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pelicans45c5,027$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.0429250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Heat49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb71…19cfbacked Heat47c4,749$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Heat73c4,541$3,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.3516065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Heat47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3280737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans1c4,062$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.621,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pelicans52c4,040$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.9748944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Heat47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Heat47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pelicans21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Heat49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0408052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Heat47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9938649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Pelicans51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9513249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…6099backed Heat48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans39c3,984$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.284,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Pelicans1c3,904$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0425016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8063…94f1backed Pelicans52c3,800$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Heat47c3,526$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.672138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pelicans51c3,467$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.282,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat61c3,220$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.951,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.491,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pelicans19c3,153$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.312,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Pelicans45c3,016$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.21,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…d7e5backed Pelicans44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…9c19backed Heat56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Pelicans49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47048137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Pelicans46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9635547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pelicans27c2,669$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.771,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Heat48c2,650$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.9761336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Pelicans20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009117.6%16 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans29c2,474$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.933,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Heat47c2,449$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.212950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat58c2,371$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.482,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Heat49c2,227$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.851,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked Pelicans40c2,173$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.8514344.8%64 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Heat48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09241652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Pelicans51c2,050$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.522055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4afd…4d18backed Pelicans52c2,031$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.262030%6 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Heat47c2,019$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.2141832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc93…a69ebacked Heat51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9801163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c8…03bebacked Pelicans49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.971361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat53c1,951$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.375,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans12c1,938$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.263,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Heat47c1,771$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.4814855.4%82 W · 66 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans52c1,670$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.3464651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cca…6143backed Heat61c1,633$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.3341550.1%208 W · 207 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2db1…8275backed Pelicans8c1,630$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89cf…5f47backed Heat48c1,585$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.421729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf0b…44fdbacked Pelicans1c1,560$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat77c1,552$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.321,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f70…a7efbacked Pelicans50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Pelicans53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79536748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0481…1c20backed Heat51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7351947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Heat48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9919441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans42c1,479$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.563,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3934…8352backed Heat48c1,459$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.623658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pelicans1c1,453$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.037211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Pelicans52c1,444$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.6371449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c03…1c9fbacked Pelicans38c1,437$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.1315544.5%69 W · 86 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7c…0df6backed Heat72c1,423$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Heat49c1,420$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.5466646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Pelicans52c1,408$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.1631455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.