NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb939e8ccafcc118cd64a88025f959716942c168238d93fa7b7201a9c40053286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ed0…c618backed Under | 44c | 290.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 279.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 273.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 53c | 182$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Over | 60c | 166.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8083backed Over | 60c | 165.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 40c | 154.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 118.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 109.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 57c | 107.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 50c | 105$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 41c | 82.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 41c | 64.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 60c | 54.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 43c | 49.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 45c | 47.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 41c | 43.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 47c | 38.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 46c | 32.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Under | 41c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…b302backed Over | 58c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Under | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 308 | 40.9%126 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Heat vs. PelicansHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Simone Fontecchio: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Heat won
- Yves Missi: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.