NBA · resolved market
Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82ec209644ad3cde2c1e971090260d43d03ac5a8829ed340226472aba9812c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 40c | 556.74$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 61c | 499.28$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 61c | 407.69$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…b0a2backed Yes | 39c | 407.69$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…7352backed Yes | 38c | 399.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 395.84$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…fabfbacked No | 57c | 235.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 76 | 73.7%56 W · 20 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 62c | 201.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed Yes | 38c | 153.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…dd58backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Yes | 35c | 53.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…da3abacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Heat vs. PelicansHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Simone Fontecchio: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Heat won
- Yves Missi: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.