NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3b7551a192b9b0b87ca40af627be6e607d0f4fc107d16d819478e9c7903113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 35c | 373.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Heat | 72c | 173.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Heat | 68c | 116.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…23f3backed Pelicans | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Heat | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…08fbbacked Heat | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…2f4ebacked Pelicans | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…01a1backed Pelicans | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca0a…4cfcbacked Heat | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…25debacked Pelicans | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…6e74backed Heat | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…8751backed Heat | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c2…8977backed Heat | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…6693backed Heat | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed Pelicans | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Heat | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…82d0backed Pelicans | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…57c6backed Pelicans | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…d484backed Pelicans | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…1282backed Pelicans | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Heat vs. PelicansHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Simone Fontecchio: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Heat won
- Yves Missi: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.