NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49da6b8cf7f045506d7b8221b0ee99e50b724f25364c6ce0d3f170ce624ad529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Pelicans, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 67c | 1,663$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans | 31c | 1,408$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Pelicans | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 54c | 570.41$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans | 45c | 526.75$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.46 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 75c | 356.93$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 53c | 315.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 284.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 53c | 282.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Pelicans | 43c | 256$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 55c | 246.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Heat | 55c | 182.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Heat | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Heat | 54c | 159.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pelicans | 44c | 133$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Pelicans | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Pelicans | 46c | 105.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 46c | 105.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Heat | 54c | 92.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Heat | 66c | 66.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Pelicans | 47c | 59.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pelicans | 35c | 50.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Heat | 67c | 49.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 47c | 49.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Heat | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Heat | 53c | 42.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Heat | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Pelicans | 47c | 33.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 54c | 24.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed Heat | 65c | 23.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Heat | 80c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Heat | 69c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Heat | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…8390backed Heat | 66c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Heat vs. PelicansHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Simone Fontecchio: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Heat won
- Yves Missi: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.