NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4aafa837d6d96cc14cbe5b80898be9d8cc0fbe7921d2f9e85f912585029804b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Penguins, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $447,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $488,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 408 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Penguins | 25c | 72,485$18,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,349.1 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 49,605$30,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,139.09 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 15,651$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,650.94 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd076…d2efbacked Penguins | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…aa04backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Maple Leafs | 16c | 14,114$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,875.5 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7606…2836backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 13,408$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,183 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Penguins | 39c | 11,976$4,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,632.56 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 10,249$6,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,894.75 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Penguins | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.98 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 9,868$3,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,461.48 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 8,995$5,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,598 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 8,662$5,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.65 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Penguins | 38c | 8,400$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.81 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Penguins | 38c | 7,515$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.25 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Penguins | 46c | 6,812$3,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.58 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…8153backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 6,700$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…bddcbacked Penguins | 39c | 6,600$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 6,217$3,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.92 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked Penguins | 74c | 6,060$4,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.04 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins | 39c | 5,555$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.45 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 5,476$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.19 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 5,315$3,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Maple Leafs | 77c | 5,307$4,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.49 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…2890backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 5,245$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Penguins | 39c | 5,184$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.98 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Penguins | 38c | 5,168$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.28 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Penguins | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b27…1ae6backed Penguins | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Penguins | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Penguins | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…eb1bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 5,000$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 4,637$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.25 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Penguins | 38c | 4,446$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.48 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 4,072$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.35 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 4,003$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.2 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Penguins | 37c | 3,887$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.18 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 3,696$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.38 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ea…3d5cbacked Penguins | 40c | 3,350$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penguins | 36c | 3,294$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.7 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 3,156$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.23 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc0…0fa5backed Penguins | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 2,873$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 2,500$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Penguins | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Maple Leafs | 21c | 2,480$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.68 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Penguins | 74c | 2,454$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.65 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Penguins | 37c | 2,313$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.9 | 510 | 44.5%227 W · 283 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…96f7backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 2,200$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.53 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Penguins | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…fe0bbacked Penguins | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed Penguins | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 1,905$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.91 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Penguins | 38c | 1,842$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…1082backed Penguins | 40c | 1,837$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 1,801$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.6 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 1,793$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.32 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,766$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.34 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…d255backed Penguins | 40c | 1,757$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…0622backed Penguins | 40c | 1,650$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9496…7454backed Penguins | 39c | 1,600$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…8085backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2421…10cfbacked Penguins | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…0a09backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Penguins | 37c | 1,459$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.72 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…1922backed Penguins | 20c | 1,431$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Maple Leafs | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.98 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,343$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.2 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Penguins | 46c | 1,318$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.44 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Penguins | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Penguins | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…7e13backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…7448backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 1,250$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…7e7fbacked Penguins | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs | 4c | 1,213$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.29 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…5c4fbacked Penguins | 39c | 1,127$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.53 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penguins | 42c | 1,105$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.75 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…618cbacked Penguins | 46c | 1,089$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Penguins | 47c | 1,075$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Penguins | 38c | 1,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Penguins | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Penguins | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a13…db82backed Penguins | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…88f2backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…f175backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 999.6$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs | 25c | 987.91$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.64 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Penguins | 61c | 924.61$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.7 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maple Leafs | 9c | 900$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…1aaabacked Penguins | 40c | 900$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…b5b2backed Penguins | 38c | 900$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Penguins | 38c | 880$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.56 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 863$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.46 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Penguins | 47c | 851.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d4…8713backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 825$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…dbc5backed Penguins | 40c | 825$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…b5e5backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 753.17$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafsthis page
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.