NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb1aef2c193eb4dc5d6963b173b2b5d8f212e0201bca23a72dbd08e5693644b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…5500backed Under | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…b8a4backed Over | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…030bbacked Over | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…4d4dbacked Over | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…3cc3backed Under | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…005cbacked Under | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…09dcbacked Over | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…618fbacked Under | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 6,410$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.37 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 4,962$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.38 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 60c | 4,311$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.04 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 51c | 4,283$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.83 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 4,194$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.22 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 3,797$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.24 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 51c | 3,611$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.39 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 3,006$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.52 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…1f7fbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…e464backed Over | 50c | 1,677$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…c2c0backed Over | 50c | 1,427$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 1,249$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.01 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…171abacked Under | 50c | 1,143$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 50c | 1,086$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…cbfdbacked Under | 50c | 1,073$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…6891backed Under | 50c | 1,043$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Under | 60c | 1,000$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.7 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 904$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…b02dbacked Under | 50c | 821$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…89b2backed Over | 50c | 759$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 60c | 510.52$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.05 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…8291backed Under | 50c | 440$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…72a3backed Under | 52c | 400.94$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…5369backed Over | 50c | 329.28$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 306$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…dbf0backed Over | 50c | 217$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 195.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5f61backed Over | 50c | 110.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 41c | 96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 52c | 81.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…99a4backed Over | 52c | 46.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…d0dcbacked Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.