NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc8b82e38d13e0d08cc2d92459c879b3cb8439cb0e4baa46de682d539c5a9ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Maple Leafs, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbd7…7098backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 15,400$6,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,160 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…563abacked Penguins | 60c | 12,300$7,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ee…7afebacked Penguins | 60c | 11,600$6,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,640 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0e…a35bbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 8,500$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 3,393$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.17 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Penguins | 60c | 1,955$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.84 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 1,830$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Penguins | 60c | 1,830$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Penguins | 60c | 1,585$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Penguins | 59c | 969.11$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.6 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 206$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 206$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 178.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Penguins | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 111.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Penguins | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Penguins | 78c | 90.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Maple Leafs | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maple Leafs | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 60.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Penguins | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 40.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Penguins | 64c | 40.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Penguins | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.