Fifa International · resolved market
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Hungary end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8100abd41aa98a56043b9d4e88573fcaf479c7c44ad562ab0694c343a63e690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 1,423$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.26 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,242$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.32 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…c724backed No | 76c | 747.29$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 13c | 746.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 316.74$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.51 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 67c | 223.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 32c | 203.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 20c | 148.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 33c | 136.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 69c | 123.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…c3efbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 36c | 50.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…bd26backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…c839backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republic of Ireland vs. Hungary end in a draw?this page
- Will Hungary win on 2025-09-06?No won
- Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.