Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe821b0349518b7efe10bcae9a56cd225ad791cc4994812da72e5e318871e1ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 23c | 1,245$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 291.67$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 7c | 268.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 196$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 29c | 164.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 160.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 133$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 112.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 77.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 71.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 68.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 75c | 59.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 50.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 24c | 49.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 39.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 33.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 72c | 32.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.