Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c1948d3bd27eeb839685d6bda663c556bbc8f138b4e4c1d16a3fc5e3f55c26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 72c | 2,650$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 39c | 1,532$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.44 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 998.14$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 838.22$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 70c | 660.95$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 660$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 590$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 59c | 416.49$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 42c | 367.78$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.15 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 17c | 363.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 321.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 290.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 288.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 264.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 254.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 239.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 73c | 217.33$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 50c | 212.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 49c | 211.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 204.35$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 186.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 32c | 173.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 28c | 167.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 166.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 159$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 152$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 131.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 128.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 124.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 119$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 28c | 117.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 115.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 62c | 104.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 29c | 102.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 98.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 96.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 25c | 91.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 20c | 90.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 85.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 84.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 63c | 79.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 14c | 76.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 63c | 76.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 35c | 76.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 74.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 64c | 69.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 67.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 67.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 46c | 66.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 62.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 62.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 61.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 79c | 59.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 52.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 22c | 52.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 50.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 50.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 29c | 48.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 49c | 47.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 60c | 44.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 65c | 42.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 42.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 41.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 41.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 57c | 40.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 38.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 42c | 37.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.