Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd869c770ae3dba9a4d6102dbd41a4bc110d6dce747b36e64401d7f3775df23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 75c | 1,461$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 1,266$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 1,237$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 645.56$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 77c | 612.45$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.72 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 382.64$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 320.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 312.9$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 277.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 258.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 256.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 255.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 246.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 244.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 65c | 244.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 46c | 242.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 239.07$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 221.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.72 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 213.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 213.04$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 211.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 25c | 195.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 190.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 28c | 185.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.04 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 180$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 177.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 8c | 170.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 170.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 36c | 155.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 155$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 50c | 145.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 144.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 43c | 142.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 25c | 138$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 55c | 136.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 47c | 132.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 41c | 128.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 126.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 126$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 75c | 114$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 73c | 109.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 54c | 108.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 108$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 37c | 101.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 30c | 98.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 50c | 98.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 93.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 92.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 90.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 32c | 87.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 86.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 78.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 41c | 72.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 42c | 71.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 71.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 69.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 31c | 65.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…fb01backed Yes | 67c | 63.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 16c | 62.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 58c | 62.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 45c | 61.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 61.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 46c | 58.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 59c | 58.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 35c | 57.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 34c | 57.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 42c | 57.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 49c | 54.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 46c | 54.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 53.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 53.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 24c | 50.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 47c | 49.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 24c | 44.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 45c | 43.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 55c | 42.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 40.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 40.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.