Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8272e8dc9b65ade48262194a6e52f2288e80115c071bd92802f6b79bcd22119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof REKONIX, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Mentality Monster | 36c | 1,536$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.13 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Mentality Monster | 30c | 1,222$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.06 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked REKONIX | 61c | 1,000$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 68c | 700.88$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…00abbacked Mentality Monster | 29c | 271.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed REKONIX | 80c | 225.05$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Mentality Monster | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked REKONIX | 61c | 195$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Mentality Monster | 22c | 177.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked REKONIX | 78c | 165.78$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed REKONIX | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked REKONIX | 65c | 131.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed REKONIX | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked REKONIX | 78c | 93.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Mentality Monster | 35c | 84.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked REKONIX | 79c | 76.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed REKONIX | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed Mentality Monster | 36c | 27.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerMentality Monster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.