World Politics · resolved market
Another Trudeau cabinet resignation by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe82935ec77a6bb034a6c80459bd6cdb9998b8332d159a8947ed5eda35a832da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 73c | 8,250$6,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed Yes | 23c | 4,346$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 31c | 4,063$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.81 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 9c | 2,599$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…890cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,387$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 2,194$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 60c | 2,125$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.75 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…e97ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,712$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,645$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 6c | 1,128$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 22c | 1,090$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…12cbbacked Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9523…5c00backed Yes | 13c | 491.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 23c | 356.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…8304backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 33c | 285.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.43 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…57f2backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 9c | 262.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…41f9backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 19c | 158.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…12d4backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b01abacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…1bc4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No | 79c | 89.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…b078backed Yes | 36c | 84.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 25c | 58.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…d936backed Yes | 48c | 52.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…bd6abacked Yes | 35c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…bc13backed No | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +319.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…d2d8backed No | 76c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.