Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe847b1d34630fedb664005e69ba3c710ff06c834b17d5295b0090a010d83ec06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 62c | 163.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 67c | 162.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 113.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 108.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 61c | 76.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 75.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 15c | 74.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 20c | 71.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 66c | 66.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -69%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 30c | 61.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 59.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 29c | 55.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 62c | 47.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 68c | 36.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 41c | 33.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 61c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 68c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 46c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 52c | 22.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…257fbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.