Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs Hurkacz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84f7abf7f1f62e8e7bf60c4f62d6b55ec9daa9b2c686f43e1be47cb00808e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurkaczof Vacherot, Hurkacz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Vacherot | 59c | 529.03$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vacherot | 44c | 500.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.33 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hurkacz | 41c | 420.45$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.96 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vacherot | 48c | 414.83$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Hurkacz | 46c | 401.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.78 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…c1cfbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 399.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…edcfbacked Hurkacz | 54c | 360.1$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vacherot | 49c | 305.1$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Hurkacz | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Hurkacz | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hurkacz | 46c | 204.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Vacherot | 54c | 180.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Vacherot | 43c | 123.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hurkacz | 45c | 103.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Vacherot | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Vacherot | 63c | 99.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Hurkacz | 33c | 99.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63b…b8cfbacked Vacherot | 59c | 82.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Hurkacz | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Hurkacz | 37c | 67.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Hurkacz | 74c | 65.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Vacherot | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Vacherot | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Hurkacz | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 337 | 47.2%159 W · 178 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca0b…3c12backed Hurkacz | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hurkacz | 42c | 33.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Vacherot | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Vacherot | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Vacherot | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs Hurkaczthis page
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert HurkaczValentin Vacherot won
- Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5)Hurkacz won
- Vacherot vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Valentin Vacherot vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.