Tennis · resolved market
Valentin Vacherot vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ebadc13ff419214f6ace7f4e78236a8b8a331381981e55a70df6126d701971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 1,515$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.38 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 1,208$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.7 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 1,008$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.49 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…4d17backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 881.04$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.57 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 843.09$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.74 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 825.56$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.06 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 751.21$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.78 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 537.98$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.68 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Under 2.5 | 48c | 504.68$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 284.58$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Over 2.5 | 34c | 250.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.58 | 645 | 37.2%240 W · 405 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 231$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ad0fbacked Under 2.5 | 70c | 140.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 137.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Under 2.5 | 44c | 124.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over 2.5 | 59c | 109.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under 2.5 | 68c | 99.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 337 | 47.2%159 W · 178 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over 2.5 | 32c | 80.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 72.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Over 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 48.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 41.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 39.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valentin Vacherot vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert HurkaczValentin Vacherot won
- Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs HurkaczHurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5)Hurkacz won
- Vacherot vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.