Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe855c3f87942b28aca776737d9861cb8c115ac18f1c950fc7a099dd9344763dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 3c | 317.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e3…17e1backed Yes | 56c | 269.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 157$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 130.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 32c | 120.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 112.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 111.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 54c | 109.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 46c | 74.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 56c | 73.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 67.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 44c | 63.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 45c | 61.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 57.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 53.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 46.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 64c | 45.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 45.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 34c | 43.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 43.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 41.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 45c | 39.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked No | 58c | 34.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 33.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 31.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 57c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 52c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 60c | 24.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 23.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 51c | 22.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 57c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 68c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.