Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d83d9528addfa71655b87cb0d450e7f2d0fa7c23814780d283624065310bc88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2613…8527backed Yes | 53c | 540.72$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 298.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 39c | 270.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 35c | 261.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…6cfebacked Yes | 66c | 226.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed No | 6c | 216.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 198.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 197.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2eb…3e5fbacked Yes | 15c | 196.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +555%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 11c | 160.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 160.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 19c | 157.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 73c | 156.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 22c | 119.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 118.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 24c | 101.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 98.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 31c | 96.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 88.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 85.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 74.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 62.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 20c | 59.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 50c | 59.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 22c | 56.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 73c | 54.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Yes | 23c | 52.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 23c | 50.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 49.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 46.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 26c | 41.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 51c | 38.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 35.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 61c | 32.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 32.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 27.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 23.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 19.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed No | 79c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 14.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 13.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 80c | 13.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.