Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8565ce10d68ea0e992d5867eef6f9b45cc8a7c317a76107fbbb79ef25b5097b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee15…b6dbbacked No | 61c | 120,000$73,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…bc74backed Yes | 39c | 120,000$46,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,934$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,707$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,048$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 828$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 13c | 636.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 4c | 279.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…2c78backed Yes | 5c | 228.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 77c | 194.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 65c | 111.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…8f85backed Yes | 40c | 87.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…7e9dbacked No | 64c | 32.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…ff92backed Yes | 42c | 28.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or higher on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.