Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or higher on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe37e84ca1de473cff985f451eee5655008960c77cbcfc502e46bc46f364fb1fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,360$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.1 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 1,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 6c | 407.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 393.52$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed No | 10c | 296.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +497.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 70c | 267.54$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 38c | 262.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 12c | 244.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 38c | 223.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 40c | 209.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed No | 9c | 181.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 43c | 169.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed No | 36c | 168.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed Yes | 74c | 156.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.54per pick | 71cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 19c | 119.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.97 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 54c | 106.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…ef04backed Yes | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed No | 24c | 91.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 15c | 80.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…0fd9backed Yes | 44c | 67.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 15c | 65.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 63.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a2…00eebacked Yes | 58c | 62.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 37c | 57.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…66eabacked No | 46c | 54.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa495…c5fdbacked Yes | 58c | 50.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…6987backed No | 54c | 44.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…421dbacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…acc6backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…4d62backed No | 49c | 31.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…05e3backed Yes | 69c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…3129backed No | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1366backed Yes | 58c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…8b3ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7f…a355backed Yes | 55c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 54c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or higher on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.