CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Fingers Crossed (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86eb780499d737940e32bcfbdc50639194e2d9a0fab0483a7e6a244530ce20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, Fingers Crossed
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed ASTRAL | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.77 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…f133backed Fingers Crossed | 48c | 6,891$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…8029backed ASTRAL | 52c | 6,886$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…e35fbacked ASTRAL | 52c | 6,645$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,189.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…e6d2backed Fingers Crossed | 48c | 6,640$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Fingers Crossed | 33c | 3,351$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.61 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Fingers Crossed | 33c | 1,585$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.66 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked ASTRAL | 68c | 1,542$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.09 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fingers Crossed | 47c | 1,133$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.16 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Fingers Crossed | 47c | 1,076$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.78 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Fingers Crossed | 32c | 891.76$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Fingers Crossed | 48c | 825.84$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…6514backed Fingers Crossed | 53c | 518$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Fingers Crossed | 31c | 509.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Fingers Crossed | 45c | 404$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Fingers Crossed | 33c | 333.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…0505backed Fingers Crossed | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Fingers Crossed | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…273dbacked Fingers Crossed | 31c | 267.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Fingers Crossed | 45c | 211.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Fingers Crossed | 32c | 155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed ASTRAL | 68c | 133.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Fingers Crossed | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked ASTRAL | 75c | 98.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaf…4b49backed ASTRAL | 69c | 72.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked ASTRAL | 38c | 65.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…8a9bbacked Fingers Crossed | 49c | 59.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Fingers Crossed | 46c | 56.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fingers Crossed | 52c | 55.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Fingers Crossed | 30c | 49.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Fingers Crossed | 22c | 47.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…5399backed ASTRAL | 75c | 37.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.