Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8742410284b05fbe966694deba07e81bfde49642ae0c3c165456a663499d4e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 440.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 12c | 306.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 28c | 275.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 215.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 206.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…ce4cbacked Yes | 19c | 177.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 163.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 157.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 150.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 150.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 147.59$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 146.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 262 | 66.8%175 W · 87 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 134.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 40c | 124.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 124$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 9c | 117.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 62c | 107.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 102.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 431 | 43.9%189 W · 242 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 96.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 26c | 93.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 84.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 76c | 83.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 718 | 20.1%144 W · 574 L | -47.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 80.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 80.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 69.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 19c | 62.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 62.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 59.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 56.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…1c48backed Yes | 20c | 53.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed Yes | 30c | 50.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 50.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 79c | 48.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…6580backed Yes | 27c | 38.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 73c | 34.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 74c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 78c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 64 | 84.4%54 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 78c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.