Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb574515c70bec32a1f338615659b051d70bb7d078e507dc9004d001d55c44e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 43c | 296.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 243.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…ce4cbacked Yes | 7c | 159.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 148.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 132.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 124$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 121.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 116.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 105.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 58c | 102.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 101.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 68c | 84.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 82.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 63c | 81.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 79.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 22c | 67.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 60c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 38c | 62.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 52.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 42c | 43.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 42.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 41.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 39.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 43c | 34.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 57c | 33.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 44c | 30.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 64c | 27.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 26.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 59c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 65c | 21.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.