Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bce864e544bd3780cc3d6da8caffe9e1156071dab90e110052af3cd52136ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 14c | 1,053$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.32 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 17c | 907.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 25c | 398.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 8c | 389.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 365.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 335.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 11c | 301.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 9c | 283.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 16c | 281.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…2857backed Yes | 11c | 173.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 13c | 165.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 14c | 157.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 11c | 156.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 139.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 127.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 122.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 19c | 121$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 117.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 109.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 105.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 101.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 96.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 80.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 27c | 72.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 66.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 65.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 62.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 63c | 56.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 27.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 76c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.