Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95efe405bfe5f2113897fa5d5737af9994867bb749d746d39c7ba50584eee047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 13c | 660.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 53c | 573$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.69 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 446.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 47c | 323.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.13 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…d1b6backed Yes | 43c | 234.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 223.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 176.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 34c | 161.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 159.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 17c | 150.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 141.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 129.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…becfbacked No | 43c | 124.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 116.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 114$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…824bbacked Yes | 79c | 109.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 104.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 101.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 99.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 80c | 99.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 91.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 88.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 36c | 87.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 87.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 16c | 78.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 69.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 68.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 67.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 67.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 63.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 62.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 59.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 59.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…2857backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 57.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafec…1312backed Yes | 37c | 56.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 56.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 52.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 42c | 51.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 28c | 50.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 49.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 48.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 44.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 56c | 43.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 36c | 42.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 41.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed No | 26c | 39.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 37.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 42c | 36.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…da52backed Yes | 45c | 34.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 34.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 33.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 43c | 31.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 46c | 28.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 58c | 25.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 25.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 64c | 24.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 24.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 55c | 22.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 21.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 65c | 21.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 20.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.