South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e6acb757766e08e5efb827415bfd0d823fd1963a9b06dad870102714fa0370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 43c | 25,000$10,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,750 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 57c | 24,797$14,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,662.92 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 64c | 8,241$5,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241.7 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 3,618$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.82 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 60c | 3,417$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.67 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 3,288$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.18 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 32c | 2,607$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.43 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Yes | 59c | 2,492$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.69 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 40c | 575$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 79c | 340$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 62c | 317.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.31 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.25 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 40c | 258.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb757…aaa2backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 59c | 170.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Yes | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 57c | 141.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 30c | 129$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 30c | 75.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 64c | 70.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…2335backed Yes | 79c | 70.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Yes | 59c | 42.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 55c | 37.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw?No won
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.