Asian League · resolved market
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ff86972163639116791b4cdc541df4ada5015dab99545156af294d4da9e313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 2,607$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.95 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 32c | 1,249$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.86 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 39c | 642$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.62 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 66c | 590.91$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 61c | 266.18$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 50c | 245$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 38c | 157.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 148.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…70aebacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 65.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 65c | 59.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 68c | 51.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 273 | 38.8%106 W · 167 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 51c | 36.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 76c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Under | 63c | 24.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.