Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe907c8de330b4d4194d87e51354101829b882c67c647af721cce3b7d32c52340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Over | 55c | 960.85$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 782.9$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.64 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 370$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 62c | 354.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…01a4backed Over | 46c | 278.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 41c | 221.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 60c | 204$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Over | 57c | 88.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…efa6backed Over | 60c | 66.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 60c | 62.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 61c | 52.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…7da5backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.