Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92fd3a039e6dfe28d6422341917eb9fb41e3a544b94b767c74c5942c87c13e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb53b…168dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,656$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 421.42$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 414.1$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 21c | 276.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 237.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 188.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 182.41$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 29c | 174.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 170.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 159.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 157.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 155.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 69c | 143.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 143.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 114.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 104.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 86.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 25c | 86.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 85.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 27c | 82.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 26c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 74.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 70.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 34c | 70.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 69.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 42c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 62.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 56.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…a607backed Yes | 28c | 53.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 71c | 52.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 42c | 51.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed Yes | 42c | 49.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 58c | 46.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 34c | 39.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 47c | 37.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…fa27backed Yes | 28c | 37.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 36.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 33c | 35.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 34.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 69c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed Yes | 52c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 73c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 47c | 21.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 20.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 16.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.