Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe93c5ab7bee1fdd870f66ef1767f5554645904ac9a61e63823de628a7bd1f045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 58c | 4,917$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.72 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 42c | 3,101$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.41 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,557$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.55 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 43c | 1,488$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.03 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 893.74$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.43 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 42c | 428.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.57 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 16c | 304$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 178.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Under | 58c | 77.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 58c | 64.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 58.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdc…8e06backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 42c | 25.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Under | 59c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 58c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-2.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.