Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc988b3362dade3d2b2a25ef6d6753d6c2980c96836de44237410ed14a58e0d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 3,102$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.17 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 39c | 959.8$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.16 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 833.37$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.55 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 54c | 600$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 71c | 422.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 16c | 406.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…8c87backed Over | 51c | 392.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…0a81backed Over | 65c | 318.4$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 19c | 285$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 210.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Under | 23c | 127.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 49c | 124.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…3c11backed Over | 54c | 110.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 36c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 56c | 78.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 44c | 78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 76c | 49.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Over | 67c | 47.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…c8cebacked Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 38.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…bc35backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Over | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-2.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.