NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Chargers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe990f0940fba8098df9da1199572ba8bb303c8bd9d91a61db86b9e041377f477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Cowboys, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Cowboys | 23c | 5,327$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.14 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Cowboys | 50c | 3,935$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Cowboys | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Cowboys | 10c | 2,856$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…31edbacked Cowboys | 34c | 2,828$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Chargers | 63c | 1,745$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Cowboys | 15c | 1,455$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.09 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Cowboys | 66c | 985.32$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Chargers | 68c | 784.81$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.97 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Cowboys | 47c | 608.4$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.95 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Chargers | 66c | 590.91$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.91 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Cowboys | 67c | 470$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Cowboys | 29c | 414$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Chargers | 64c | 341.87$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Chargers | 74c | 220.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Chargers | 76c | 214$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Chargers | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Chargers | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…d04cbacked Cowboys | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Cowboys | 27c | 180.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Chargers | 33c | 122.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Chargers | 34c | 111.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Chargers | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -85%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Chargers | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…365fbacked Cowboys | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Chargers | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Chargers | 34c | 87.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Cowboys | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed Chargers | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Cowboys | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c5…132ebacked Cowboys | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cowboys | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Cowboys | 65c | 40.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Cowboys | 63c | 20.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Cowboys | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.